In recent months, the international rice market has been facing the dual test of trade protectionism and El Ni ñ o weather, which has led to strong increases in international rice prices. The market’s attention to rice has also surpassed that of varieties such as wheat and corn. If international rice prices continue to rise, it is imperative to adjust domestic grain sources, which may reshape China’s rice trade pattern and usher in a good opportunity for rice exports.
On July 20th, the international rice market suffered a heavy blow, and India issued a new ban on rice exports, covering 75% to 80% of India’s rice exports. Prior to this, global rice prices had risen by 15% -20% since September 2022.
Afterwards, rice prices continued to rise, with Thailand’s benchmark rice price rising by 14%, Vietnam’s rice price rising by 22%, and India’s white rice price rising by 12%. In August, in order to prevent exporters from violating the ban, India once again imposed a 20% surcharge on steamed rice exports and set a minimum selling price for Indian fragrant rice.
The Indian export ban has also had a profound impact on the international market. The ban not only triggered export bans in Russia and the United Arab Emirates, but also led to panic buying of rice in markets such as the United States and Canada.
At the end of August, Myanmar, the world’s fifth largest rice exporter, also announced a 45 day ban on rice exports. On September 1st, the Philippines implemented a price cap to limit the retail price of rice. On a more positive note, at the ASEAN meeting held in August, leaders pledged to maintain smooth circulation of agricultural products and avoid the use of “unreasonable” trade barriers.
At the same time, the intensification of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon in the Pacific region may lead to a decrease in rice production from major Asian suppliers and a significant increase in prices.
With the rise in international rice prices, many rice importing countries have suffered greatly and have had to introduce various purchase restrictions. But on the contrary, as the largest producer and consumer of rice in China, the overall operation of the domestic rice market is stable, with a growth rate far lower than that of the international market, and no control measures have been implemented. If international rice prices continue to rise in the later stage, China’s rice may have a good opportunity for export.
Post time: Oct-07-2023