Pest and disease management is critical to agricultural production, protecting crops from harmful pests and diseases. Threshold-based control programs, which apply pesticides only when pest and disease population densities exceed a predetermined threshold, can reduce pesticide use. However, the effectiveness of these programs is unclear and varies widely.
To assess the widespread adoption of threshold-rate-based pesticide application protocols in agriculture, we systematically searched for relevant studies evaluating threshold rates in cropping systems. Using multiple search engines, we ultimately analyzed 126 studies to determine the impact of threshold-rate-based pesticide application protocols on arthropod pest control, agricultural productivity, and beneficial arthropod density. We hypothesize that threshold-rate-based pesticide application protocols can reduce pesticide use without compromising crop yields. Furthermore, compared with schedule-based pesticide application protocols, threshold-rate-based protocols are more effective in controlling arthropod-borne diseases while simultaneously promoting the survival of beneficial insects.
We conducted a literature review to determine the impact of threshold-based pesticide control programs in agriculture. Published literature was retrieved from Web of Science and Google Scholar (Figure 1). We also employed a hybrid approach, employing complementary strategies to improve the representativeness and comprehensiveness of the database.
Records were identified through database and other source searches, screened for relevance, assessed for eligibility, and ultimately narrowed to 126 studies, which were included in the final quantitative meta-analysis.
Not all studies reported means and variances; therefore, we calculated the mean coefficient of variation to estimate the variance of the log ratio.25 For studies with unknown standard deviations, we used Equation 4 to estimate the log ratio and Equation 5 to estimate the corresponding standard deviation. The advantage of this method is that even if the estimated standard deviation of the lnRR is missing, it can still be included in the meta-analysis by calculating the missing standard deviation using the weighted mean coefficient of variation from studies that centrally report standard deviations.
Table 1 presents the point estimates of the ratios, associated standard errors, confidence intervals, and p-values for each measure and comparison. Funnel plots were constructed to determine the presence of asymmetry for the measures in question (Supplementary Figure 1). Supplementary Figures 2–7 present the estimates for the measures in question in each study.
More details about the study design can be found in the Nature Portfolio report summary linked from this article.
Our analysis shows that threshold-based pesticide management programs can significantly reduce pesticide use and associated costs, but it remains unclear whether agricultural producers actually benefit from them. The studies included in our meta-analysis varied significantly in their definitions of “standard” pesticide management programs, ranging from regional practices to simplified calendar programs. Therefore, the positive results we report here may not fully reflect the actual experiences of producers. Moreover, although we documented significant cost savings due to reduced pesticide use, the initial studies generally did not consider field inspection costs. Therefore, the overall economic benefits of threshold-based management programs may be somewhat lower than the results of our analysis. However, all studies that reported field inspection costs documented reduced production costs due to reduced pesticide costs.
Economic thresholds play a central role in the concept of integrated pest management (IPM), and researchers have long reported the positive benefits of threshold-based pesticide application programs. Our study showed that arthropod pest control is essential in most systems, as 94% of studies indicate a reduction in crop yield without pesticide application.
Post time: Nov-07-2025